I'm far from certain, but she has led at every poll and I have no doubt she will win the popular vote. What remains to be seen is whether she picks up enough electoral votes. But the reason I think she will win is because I believe a lot of bread-and-butter Republicans don't like Trump but are too scared to say it publicly. So I'm predicting they will either abstain or vote for Harris on the day.
Sometimes people say things to try to effect change. They may not like Harris and want the Dems to field a better candidate. So they say they will vote for Trump in the hope the Dems will listen and choose someone else. That's obviously not going to happen now – even though that's exactly what we saw when Biden dropped out in favour of Harris: all of a sudden, she picked up votes. Whether that actually meant people changed their mind about voting for Harris instead of Biden – or if they simply "changed" their intended vote as a register of approval – remains to be seen.
But when push comes to shove, Trump has already proven he is willing to trash US democracy and harm the very people he is meant to represent. And I think that will sway things. I have hope that the people of America will do the right thing. I am not saying Harris deserves to be President. But I am saying that Trump cetainly doesn't.
In the same spirit, this poll will allow you to change your vote at any time right up until election night.
