Are you ready for the crash?

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smokebreaks
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Post by smokebreaks »

Honestly there’s been a bubble floated in the derivative markets that’s been causing me to be concerned for some time. The facts that really have me convinced are many but largely relate to the overall increases in interest rates and the yield on the T-Bills.

It’s costing the US taxpayers to fund this ship and the middle class is stretched to the point where they’re not going to be able to put up much to help steady the tides if you will.

The latest news of the fracture of the OPEC nations with Qatar leaving the cartel is going to be a tough play too, but the depths of Saudi Arabia’s reliance on Oil prices is another key as well.

When oil is trading so low due to decreased demand it shows that the global manufacturing sector is in a world of hurt and “energy” they say is the driver for all industry.
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Post by bentech »

its an interesting thing
holding so few of the valuables your compatriots do that
you don't hear the same warnings cries

smokes is right but
the results will be contractions
rather than in inpulusion

the controlers of the overall understand that they can manipulate more extraction of value
if they ease you down
rather than
destroy the basis

you untheanticipated will suffer losses
but not the devestations that would lead to uprising

just the depreciation you were warned of as the worest safe to fear...
couple say mabe two or three times over

back to sleep...
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Post by Intrinsic »

smokebreaks wrote: The biggest problem is that these governments are spending money that they've already got obligated elsewhere and are hopeful that the public doesn't notice.
Yup! And worse they're working on the premise: the population by and large is stupid. Pisses me off. Where is good journalism these days? Perhaps the premise also that the press will never ask directly what heck is going on here. Since not much is asked. Thanks for speaking up.

As an engineer looking at any complex system I always ask where is the lynchpin. In this case what is the limited natural resource that is that lynchpin to crash the system? Cause I believe it won't crash till a certain majority of people goes without a real necessity. Food ought to do it. Such as the dairy and produce farms unable to sell/distribute food as Smokes mentioned the beginning
OK now I'm heading over to the Petro dollar thread for more info on this. After all today's agriculture is turning petroleum into food.

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Post by Jesús Malverde »

smokebreaks wrote: When oil is trading so low due to decreased demand it shows that the global manufacturing sector is in a world of hurt and “energy” they say is the driver for all industry.
Demand has been on a steady rise over the last few years. It's been especially steady actually if you use some statistical smoothing.

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

One anomaly driving down prices is the huge ramp up in US production of crude in Texas and the SW. A trend expected only to continue. The US will pass the KSA as the world's largest oil producer and be a net oil exporter for the first time in over seventy five years next year!

https://www.bipc.com/the-energy-edge-u. ... l-exporter" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Intrinsic is right: economics in the end isn't about money or claims on it or other artificial accounting units; it's about the actual resources those accounting units claim to represent.
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Post by Jesús Malverde »

There are plenty of reasons out there for a bearish outlook, but I would go out on a limb and say that the US is among the very best positioned countries to ride out the next (inevitable, in a [deliberately] cyclical global economy*) GFC. Every other large country I see in the world has greater exposure to risk, be it lack of diversity in resources, food productive potential, and probably above all else -- security. The US, almost uniquely among the large economies, has no potential military invasion threats along its borders. We spend like we do, but that's just spending to throw money around; the ridiculous amount thee US spends on putative "defense" is almost completely unnecessary. That's the resources represented by well over a trillion USD per year that the US has the luxury of reallocating, if the political will ever exists to do so.

*speculative investment (the backbone of the financial sector) relies on market volatility to take rents and profits and the bigger the swings, the bigger the potential gains. A well-managed serene, non-volatile market that has neither ups or downs, while good for nearly everyone else, would render speculative investing almost pointless -- and kill the financial industry.
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Post by Butcher Bob »

Jesús Malverde wrote:...the US is among the very best positioned countries to ride out the next (inevitable, in a [deliberately] cyclical global economy*) GFC. Every other large country I see in the world has greater exposure to risk....
I'm not so sure aboot that. I heard reference to a study recently that analyzed each country's ability to withstand isolation. Almost all faced collapse within one year I think they had the US pegged for aboot six months. At the top of the list, by far, was China, who could last five years. It was noted their stores of raw materials and food would allow them to reach that time frame pretty easily.

Now I'm not sure how accurately that study could predict such a thing, but I do know... They were stockpiling metals for many years. They just quit buying recyclable materials because their stores are too large. They are one of the leading countries in rate of conversion to green energy. As a whole, they do seem to be gearing up for the future. :dunno:

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Post by bentech »

don't fall for it
greatest production and export means different today than it did back when

the imput cost and contaminated and divided biospheres factors are entirely missing from the evaluation


soon youll be getting bonuses for actually poking your coworkers with sharp sticks...
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Post by smokebreaks »

"Although the oil market has reached a balance now, the forecasts for 2019 for non-OPEC supply growth indicate higher volumes outpacing the expansion in world oil demand, leading to widening excess supply in the market," OPEC said

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/13/opec-kn ... month.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Post by bentech »

oh I get the reason the car plants are closing is because they see the market shrinking and ive listened to the economists who explain theres no reason to hold onto our national reserve anymore because its value isn't going to be going up any longer
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Post by bentech »

I cant bear watching lee camps
but in writing hes good and he gets a good interview out of Richard wolff here


https://www.truthdig.com/articles/prof- ... is-coming/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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