This is correct, mutations are mostly random. However, some environmental influences can directly cause mutations, such as exposure to intense radiation.Intrinsic wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:29 amThe statement above makes it appear as if the SARS-cov-2 chooses where to mutate to escape host immunity, which is not the case. The pressure is put on the virus and mutations occur randomly, resulting in escape variants and some resulting in weaker variants.monitoring how members of these known 501Y lineages, and others still undiscovered, are convergently evolving similar strategies to ensure their persistence in the face of mounting infection and vaccine induced host immune recognition ..."
There appear to me to be two main flaws in the theory that vaccines expedite genetic mutations:
The first is that there do not appear to be any reported cases of this happening in the past with other vaccines. Indeed, vaccines have either eradicated or severely limited the transmission of many human diseases in the past, including polio, smallpox, measles, mumps, rubella, diptheria, tetanus etc.
So much for accelerating "vaccine-resistant" virus mutations.
However, I'll let Professor Jennifer Grier, Clinical Assistant Professor in Immunology at the University of South Carolina, explain the second flaw in the theory:
https://www.reuters.com/article/factche ... SL1N2OZ1PUProf Jennifer Grier wrote:“Effectively, we are hearing so much more about viral variants in 2021 because, globally, we now have the systems in place to consistently detect and track mutations.
"Virus mutations arise when the virus is replicating in a cell. None of the available vaccines contain live virus, so they cannot directly be the source of a viral variant.
“For the most part, the coronavirus vaccines reduce the risk of getting infected, and with fewer infections, there is less replicating virus so the chance of producing new variants decreases as well.”
And that is it in a nutshell.
Virus mutations are a numbers game: the more individual cells replicate, the faster mutations happen.
If there is a 1 in a trillion chance of mutation (statistically speaking), then keeping the total number of virus cells below that number reduces the chance of mutation to almost zero. If you allow the virus to replicate in more human bodies – and the total number of cells then jumps to 10 trillion – you have just increased your chances of a virus mutation by 10x.
But not all mutations are dangerous. A mutation may or may not provide an evolutionary advantage. If it does, it becomes the dominant strain. If it doesn't, it dies out.
CV19 mutations that are likely to dominate are those that are either more contagious, faster to reproduce, or more resistant to human anti-bodies – allowing the virus to replicate faster within the body, and also be transmitted more successfully outside it.
And that is why the Delta strain is fast becoming the dominant strain around the world.
