who would have thought ....
1 thing that tells me not to invest in LEDs is moors law:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
which is actually about transistors and space, but the same applies to LED chips as well, tho there arent transistors on board, its the space that gets double filled and the technology advances ahead putting out more n more lumens per watt , or to be scientific correct, puts out more n more photons (flux) , meanwhile LEDs have overtaken all HID lamps when its about photon flux
cool ay ? no, not yet ....
30 years ago you bought a sodium lamp with a ballast and you knew that there wont be any surprises within the lighting industry, that 30 year old system is today still competitive with anything else producing light, ok we have the double ended models, which is an improvement but nothing new, like with cars, a new model slightly better optics, some changes here n there, a bit more modern ... but the same thing that it was 100 years ago, 4 wheels, petrol, ingnition, and thats it ... today we have hybrid cars and , drumroll please : electrical cars ... that would be the analogy to LEDs, something completley new ... but thats also the problem
you buy today the most modern electrical car, for example a tesla, within 5 years, the car will be old , the tech inside of it, there will be better batteries, better electro motors, better software etc ... ok, to bring it into a reasonable timeframe/line ... improvements/news arent that fast within the automobile industrie , compared to computers or LEDs, i would say whats 5 years in computer years, is about 25 years in car-years, so to say 25 years ago, cars were only half as good as today ...
hope you get all my drift ...
now back to real hardware,
no matter if already readily built off the shelf from the store, or cheaper self soldered as a DIY project, no matter what you choose ... within 5 years your LED panel will be old, older than old ... no matter if the meantime between failurs (mtbf) climbs up to 100000 hours ... its like buying a brandnew ford model t (hypothetically via a time maschine) for the purpose of a new family car .... sure the model t is still today very sought after .. but not for actual driving, just for collecting as a treasure, or investing as a money reproduction model
sure your panel will work great within 5 years, it wont be old in the means of used, but in the means of technology
same with computers: either the LEDs will become so cheap, that the panel which costs you now 1000 bucks, will cost only 100 , or the panels within 5 years will still cost 1000 bucks, but their technology will be 2,3,4 times better than todays
for me this model of buying things lacks any real alternatives, i know if i stick up to a brandnew gavita double ended system, i dont need to be afraid of concurrency from other technologies (LEDs) within the next 5 years, as its been decades before ... also there will be improvement at bulbs n gases n other stuff
with LEDs - you buy it today and its already doomed to be old ... 1W chips (diodes) , 3W, 5W, 10W, chip on board (array) ...there is no end to it, and i feel screwed over, who is gonna buy your used panel within 5 years, either too expansive or too lame/old and you threw literally money through the open window
a negative money model right from the start ...
sure, there are freaks out there who dont belong into a normal consumer corner, and they dont care about money or investment or anything else, as you might heard already one nice definition of a hobby: paying most money to the least reasonable things
atm the cheapest but also the most reasonabl panels , cost about 1,40 € per watt
(bonsaihero hanspanel
http://bonsaihero.com/index.php/led-growlight-180-watt" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;)
you need at least 2 of those for 3x3 /4x4 space (tent), thats 500 euros for light ... i can get a new 600W HPS system for 50 € (ballast+bulb+reflector) .. scary ... but you are saving energy, arent you ? ... you are saving that much energy, that you have to run the panel for 3,5 years in order to equal out power costs ... so far so good ... in those 3,5 years lots will change ... and this was just a cheap panel ... most of you know, that panels dont cost less than 1000 bucks (for a space 3x3 /4x4) you can do the math when its payed off ... lol ....
its diabolic and mean - this whole LED story, you have to be up to date, to read fucking charts, follow newest tech improvements and to be handy with a soldering iron ... if you wanna play along ....
still up to this day, there isnt a single commercial LED operation in holland with legal crops, the dutch are still using HPS for their cucumbers and tomatoes and and and, tho on paper there are better things ... and its not about money when we talk about legal commercial operations, so what is it thats keeping off the dutch from LEDs?
any ideas ?